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Pebble Beach is the most obvious comp as a short course right on the coast, so former AT&T Pro-Am winners Vaughn Taylor and Nick Taylor will be worth a look here. While the is no ShotLink SG data available at this event, there are several courses on Tour that feature a similar layout as short, coastal, windy tracks with relatively easy scoring conditions. As far as course history goes, I tend to put a heavier weight on it on shorter courses, as the fairway-green game tends to be more repeatable than when distance off the tee is more important. After Gay, David Hearn, Hank Lebioda, Ryan Armour, Denny McCarthy, Kramer Hickok, and Russell Knox have each finished T20 in both years at the Bermuda Championship.
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In terms of Course History, Brian Gay has the most polished record at the Bermuda Championship, with a T3 in 2020 followed by his win in 2021.
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Given that distance is not necessary here, wayward drives are still playable out of the short rough, and random wind splits can severely alter the playing conditions in AM/PM splits, there are plenty of reasons to avoid paying up at the top of the odds board and just spray some flyers in the 40/1+ range. All of that to say, it’s going to be another week of gross odds.
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The field is “highlighted” by Patrick Reed, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Chilean Golf God Mito Pereira, and features 56 players who have played 10 or less rounds on the PGA Tour over the last 6 months. Last year’s Bermuda Championship featured the lowest strength of field of any PGA Tour event that did not go head to head with another PGA Tour event (only Corales, Barracuda, and the Puerto Rico Open featured weaker fields), and this week may arguably be worse. Should there be any high sustained winds, the Top 10 players SG: TOT in High Winds are Bo Hoag, Matt Fitzpatrick, Russell Knox, Ben Crane, Sean O’Hair, David Hearn, Kramer Hickok, Andres Romero, Patrick Rodgers, and Lee Hodges. It will be important to pay attention to weather splits this week, particularly in the FRL market, as the AM/PM disparity at last year’s Bermuda Championship effectively eliminated half the field from the draw. Here, you can all but guarantee that wind will play a deciding factor on how low the scores can go, and it’s the only tournament of the year where I factor in SG in windy conditions into my model. TPC Craig Ranch is another course who’s best defense was the wind, but wind in Texas is far more volatile to predict than on the coastline of the Bermuda Triangle. Port Royal’s best defense is the weather, and its exposure to the wind, sitting exposed right on the Atlantic Ocean coastline.
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When I think Bermuda, I think shorts, and that’s the name of the game at the 2022 Butterfield Bermuda Championship, as we head to the second shortest course on Tour in Port Royal Golf Course (standing 12 yards longer than Pebble Beach).
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